Oquendo & Company

The Prediction Record

The record of what we said would happen.

Every prediction Oquendo & Company publishes is entered here on the day it is made, with the base rate it has to beat, the date it settles, and the name of the body that settles it. It is then left alone. A benchmark that publishes only the predictions that aged well is not a benchmark, and the only way to prove we are not doing that is to make the entries impossible to revise once they exist.

The RecordAs of July 23, 2026

0 Predictions published Entered at issue, never amended, never withdrawn.
0 Settled Settle-by date reached and the outcome recorded against the public record.
0 Upheld Settled in favour of the published claim. Upheld plus broken always equals settled.
0 Settlements overdue Settle-by date passed with nothing recorded. This figure must read zero.

A count of correct predictions means nothing without the count of predictions made, and neither means anything without the rate a coin would have achieved. All three are published here, none of them is ours to adjust, and every one of them moves on a schedule set by somebody else.

No prediction has been published yet, and this page will not invent one.

A prediction on this record carries a number: the base rate it has to beat. That number has to be derived from the corpus — from what has actually been observed to happen to objects of the same kind — and the corpus has not yet produced enough settled observations to derive it. Until it has, any figure printed here would be an estimate dressed as a measurement.

We would rather publish a zero. A record that opens with an honest empty page costs us the time it takes to earn the first row; a record that opens with a fabricated percentage costs us the only thing this record is for. The first entry will appear when the corpus can support it and not on any date chosen for its convenience.

What can be said today is what this page will hold: the predicted object, the claim, the base rate, the settle-by date, the settling authority, and — when that date arrives — the outcome, either way. No settlement date exists yet, because nothing has been published to settle.

What a prediction records

Each entry names the object it is about — a dated public promise somebody else has already made, carrying its own settlement date and its own settling authority — and states the claim so that a reader can tell afterwards whether it happened. Beside it sits the base rate the claim must beat and the reference class that base rate is drawn from, because a claim published without one cannot be scored: everything looks like skill when nothing is being compared to it.

Nothing settles quietly

When the settle-by date arrives, the outcome is recorded either way, against what the settling authority published rather than against any account of ours. A settlement that simply never happens would let this page be curated by omission, so a settle-by date passing with nothing recorded against it stops our own release. The overdue figure above is the one that would show it, and it is published for exactly that reason.

Entries are fixed at issue

A published prediction is never edited and never removed. Only its outcome may be attached, once, and that attachment is fixed in the same way. This is enforced rather than promised: each entry carries a digest recorded when it is published, and a changed or missing digest halts our release before anything reaches this page. A prediction that aged badly is the most valuable row here, so it is the one the record is built to keep. Where a published conclusion turns out to have been wrong, the correction is entered in the errata record and the original is left legible beside it.

What this page does not show

It does not show how any prediction is reached. The object, the claim, the base rate, the date, the authority and the outcome are all public and all checkable; the method that produced them is not, and nothing on this page is intended to let it be reconstructed. That is the arrangement: you do not have to trust the engine, because you can score the record it produces. Terms of access are set out under Access; the standing this record supports is described under About.

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Terms of Use

1 · Acceptance & Scope

These Terms of Use (the “Terms”) govern your access to and use of this public website and all content, assessments, benchmarks, indices, readings, and marks we publish on it (collectively, the “Site”), provided by Oquendo & Company (“we” or “us”). By accessing or using the Site, you agree to these Terms; if you do not agree, do not use the Site. You represent that you are at least 18 years old.

These Terms govern use of the public Site only. Any paid subscription or commissioned Reading is offered solely under a separate written agreement furnished at the time of commission. Nothing on the Site is an offer to contract and nothing here entitles you to, or forms a contract for, any subscription or Reading.

2 · Nature of the Site — Statements of Opinion

Oquendo & Company publishes independent assessments of infrastructure deliverability based on public data. All outputs are statements of opinion provided for informational purposes only as of their stated date. They are not statements of fact, and they are not financial, investment, engineering, insurance, legal, or other professional advice, nor a recommendation to take or refrain from any action. Our opinions are protected expression. They are not a guarantee, warranty, or assurance of any outcome, condition, or future performance.

Our benchmarks are produced with the material assistance of an automated system and are reviewed and issued under the firm’s professional judgment; the automated components do not act autonomously as to any published opinion.

3 · No Reliance

Assessments reflect information available as of their stated date and may change without notice. They are published for general information only. No person may rely on any output as the basis for any decision, and Oquendo & Company owes no duty of care to any reader or other person.

4 · Corrections

If we identify an error in the public record we cited, we may publish a corrected edition speaking as of a new stated date. A correction is a re-publication, not a revision of what came before: each edition speaks only as of its own date. Nothing in this creates a duty to monitor, update, or supplement any opinion we have already published.

5 · License & Intellectual Property

The Site, including all text, benchmarks, methodologies, compilations, and marks, is owned by Oquendo & Company and protected by intellectual-property and trade-secret law. Subject to these Terms, we grant you a limited, revocable, non-exclusive, non-transferable license to view the Site for your internal, non-commercial reference. You may not copy, redistribute, resell, publicly display, frame, scrape, data-mine, reverse-engineer, or create derivative works from the Site, or use it to train any model, except as expressly authorized in writing.

6 · Acceptable Use

You agree not to (a) access the Site by automated means except a conforming search-engine crawler; (b) interfere with or probe the Site’s security or infrastructure; (c) misrepresent any output or strip it of its date, context, or disclaimers; or (d) use the Site in violation of any law.

7 · Disclaimer of Warranties

THE SITE IS PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE,” WITHOUT WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS, IMPLIED, OR STATUTORY. OQUENDO & COMPANY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TITLE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT, AND ANY WARRANTY AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RELIABILITY OF ANY OUTPUT. YOU ASSUME TOTAL RESPONSIBILITY AND RISK FOR YOUR USE OF THE SITE.

8 · Limitation of Liability

TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, OQUENDO & COMPANY AND ITS MEMBERS, OFFICERS, AND AGENTS WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, EXEMPLARY, OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, OR FOR ANY LOSS OF PROFITS, DATA, GOODWILL, OR BUSINESS, ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO THE SITE OR THESE TERMS, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT, OR OTHERWISE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. OQUENDO & COMPANY’S TOTAL AGGREGATE LIABILITY FOR ALL CLAIMS ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO THE SITE WILL NOT EXCEED ONE HUNDRED U.S. DOLLARS ($100).

9 · Governing Law & Venue

These Terms are governed by the laws of the State of Texas, without regard to its conflict-of-laws rules. Subject to Section 10, the exclusive venue for any dispute is the state or federal courts located in Texas, and you consent to their personal jurisdiction.

10 · Dispute Resolution — Arbitration & Class Waiver

ANY DISPUTE ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO THE SITE OR THESE TERMS WILL BE RESOLVED BY FINAL AND BINDING INDIVIDUAL ARBITRATION GOVERNED BY THE FEDERAL ARBITRATION ACT, ADMINISTERED BY THE AMERICAN ARBITRATION ASSOCIATION UNDER ITS CONSUMER ARBITRATION RULES, AND SEATED IN TEXAS. YOU AND OQUENDO & COMPANY WAIVE ANY RIGHT TO A JURY TRIAL AND ANY RIGHT TO PARTICIPATE IN A CLASS, COLLECTIVE, OR REPRESENTATIVE ACTION. If the American Arbitration Association is unavailable, a court may appoint an administrator or arbitrator under 9 U.S.C. § 5. Either party may seek injunctive relief in court to protect intellectual property. You may opt out of this Section by written notice to the address below within 30 days of first accepting these Terms. If the class, collective, or representative-action waiver is held unenforceable as to any claim, this entire Section 10 is void as to that claim only, which then proceeds in the courts identified in Section 9; the remainder of this Section stays in force.

11 · Changes

We may modify these Terms by posting a revised version. Your continued use of the Site after a change constitutes acceptance.

12 · General

If any provision is held unenforceable, the remainder stays in effect and the unenforceable provision is reformed to the minimum extent necessary. These Terms are the entire agreement regarding the Site and supersede prior understandings. No waiver is implied by any failure to enforce. You may not assign these Terms; we may. The disclaimers and limitations survive termination.

13 · Contact

Oquendo & Company — contact@oquendoandco.com.

© 2026 Oquendo and Company. All rights reserved.

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Privacy Notice

1 · Scope

This notice describes how Oquendo & Company handles personal data of visitors to this website. Our assessments are built from public infrastructure data about places, not people; we collect little personal data and do not build consumer profiles.

2 · Information We Collect

We collect only (a) information you voluntarily provide, such as an email address when you contact us or request a service; and (b) limited technical data your browser sends (such as IP address and request metadata) used for security and to operate the site. We do not sell this data and do not use it for targeted advertising.

3 · How We Use Information

We use personal data to respond to your inquiries, provide and secure the Site, comply with law, and maintain records. We retain it only as long as necessary for these purposes.

4 · Sharing

We share personal data only with service providers acting on our behalf under contract (for example, email and hosting infrastructure), or where required by law. We do not sell personal data, share it for cross-context behavioral advertising, or use it for profiling that produces legal or similarly significant effects.

5 · Sensitive Data

We do not request or knowingly process sensitive personal data, and we do not knowingly collect personal data from anyone under 18.

6 · Your Texas Privacy Rights

If you are a Texas resident, you have the right to confirm whether we process your personal data; to access, correct, or delete it; to obtain a portable copy; and to opt out of any sale, targeted advertising, or qualifying profiling. To exercise these rights, email contact@oquendoandco.com. We will verify and respond within 45 days. If we decline, you may appeal by replying to our decision; we will respond to the appeal in writing within 60 days. If the appeal is denied, you may submit a complaint to the Texas Attorney General.

7 · Data Security & Cookies

We apply reasonable administrative and technical safeguards appropriate to the limited data we hold. The site uses only cookies strictly necessary to operate and secure it; it does not use advertising or cross-site tracking cookies.

8 · Changes & Contact

We may update this notice by posting a revised version. Questions or requests: Oquendo & Company — contact@oquendoandco.com.

© 2026 Oquendo and Company. All rights reserved.